Rule 5 Draft Targets

8 Dec Nick Barnese

Today, the final day of the Winter Meetings, will also hold Major League Baseball’s Rule 5 Draft. The Cubs stand to lose infielder Ryan Flaherty, shortstop Marwin Gonzalez, and pitcher Dae-Eun Rhee.

The most recognizable name of that bunch is Flaherty, who has been in the system seemingly forever. With several options available for the Cubs at third within the minors, specifically Josh Vitters, Flaherty wasn’t given a spot on the club’s 40 man roster.

The Cubs are drafting fourth, although with the additions of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod, one has to assume that the Cubs will be drafting for the Red Sox and Padres, similar to how they drafted Josh Hamilton for the Reds in 2006.

There are several high-upside options available through the Rule 5 draft, however.

Nick Barnese of the Tampa Bay Rays has never been above Double-A, but he could be a good option out of the bullpen–and a much better one than the likes of Casey Coleman.

Barnese has made appearances on many prospect lists for Tampa, which has been a very good farm system. While typically a starter, a move to the bullpen could allow Barnese to limit his pitch counts and focus on using his fastball and change-up mix, while sprinkling in his underwhelming slider

Barnese sort of shot-puts the ball similar to how Keith Foulke used to, which is likely the reason he has encountered shoulder issues. A move to the bullpen would also help Barnese stay on the field, which is something he has struggled to do.

Third base prospect Pedro Baez is a super, super high-upside prospect that has electric tools, but horrid pitch selection. The Cubs may take a flier with the hope that hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo can work a miracle, but unless the Cubs are feeling risky, a Baez pick is unlikely. He is, however, one of the very few Rule 5 draft prospects with superstar potential, and third base is open as of now.

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Garza on the Move?

8 Dec Chicago Cubs v Washington Nationals

Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago has tweeted that the Rangers and Cubs are discussing a package involving the Rangers’ top prospects and Cub starting pitcher Matt Garza.

With C.J. Wilson leaving for free agency, the Rangers are looking to replace his production with Garza. The top projected starting pitcher on the Rangers stands to be Derek Holland. While Holland went 16-5 in 2011, he produced mediocre peripheral statistics.

Neftali Feliz is slated to join the Rangers’ rotation, but he may not be ready to eat the appropriate amount of innings after two seasons in the bullpen.

Matt Harrison would most likely be booted off the rotation with an addition of Garza.

The mediocrity of the Rangers’ starters, along with their strong farm system makes them a prime trade candidate for the Cubs.

I took a look at what the Cubs could get from the Rangers in a Matt Garza trade earlier.

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Aside

Pirates Sign Erik Bedard

7 Dec

Pirates Sign Erik Bedard

I really would have liked to see him in a Cub Uniform, especially for the $4.5M it took to put him in a Pirate Uniform.

Injuries are probably what kept Theo and Co. away.

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Ron Santo Gets Elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame

5 Dec Ron Santo

Former Cub third baseman Ron Santo has been elected by the Golden Era committee into the Hall of Fame.

We all wish Ronnie could see it for himself.

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Dale Sveum Needs To Bring The Stache Back

3 Dec Dale Sveum

Power.

Vigor.

Authority.

Essence.

These words can only attempt describe the impact of a mustache.

In anticipation for a season of inevitable futility, the Cubs are going to need all the help they can get.

The Cubs are going to need Dale Sveum’s mustache.

Just look at that thing. That mustache is an example of pure strength.

If anyone has seen today’s version of Dale Sveum, he appears to be impersonating Lex Luthor from Smallville (played by Michael Rosenbaum).

There’s nothing there.

The mustache has proven success since the beginning of time itself. From Albert Einstein, Philosopher Friederich Nietzsche, Joseph Stalin, Chicago’s own Mike Ditka, Hulk Hogan, Tom Selleck, and Burt Reynolds, just to name a few. Those names are but a small sample of the epic history the mustache has carved itself out.

The Cubs need that mustache.

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The Cubs Should Get Creative with Bedard and Harden

3 Dec Rich Harden

With the rumor mill swirling about the projected departure of Matt Garza, the Cubs will have to fill his vacancy with a suitable starting pitcher to eat up innings. Although this team isn’t projected to win by any stretch of the imagination, there are options on free agency that would allow the Cubs to fill the void with decent players.

Two such players, lefty pitcher Erik Bedard and righty Rich Harden, are two former top-notch starting pitchers who have seen injury issues plague their playing history. Bedard, a former Oriole and Mariner, ended his season with the Red Sox and started 24 games last season–the most since 2007. Harden, who was once a Cub for a year and a half, has had a career riddled with injury issues and inconsistency, all while showing spots of sheer dominance.

The two could most likely be had for the cheap; Bedard is entering his 33 year-old season and Harden has only once thrown more than 20 starts consecutively once in his career.

Given Harden’s injury past, the Cubs could make Harden a reliever. He has never been able to show consistent command, and a move to the bullpen would hide that fault (as it does its best for Carlos Marmol). Furthermore, Harden has shown that he is a far more productive pitcher earlier on in the game.

Throughout his career, Harden has held hitters to an OPS 25% better than league average in the first inning. That number drops to 18% better in the second, and 20% worse than league average in the third. From innings 4-6, Harden has 15% worse than league average.

More reliever-specific, Harden has held hitters to an OPS 23% better than league average the first time facing an opponent, and has been exactly average the second time around the lineup.

Bedard, on the other hand, has shown (when healthy) that he can be a rather productive pitcher in the past. He has posted better than average ERA for the past six seasons, and has performed better than average at things pitchers can control (FIP) his entire career, sans one season.

The knock on Bedard, however, is that he is the staple of a five inning pitcher, having only exceeded six inning per start once in his career, and never throwing more than 200 innings.

Bedard is a very decent pitcher though. His strikes out more than eight batters per nine, walks less than four per nine, and gives up home runs at an average rate.

Given the amount of quality the Cubs have in the back end of the bullpen with Marmol, Wood, Marshall, Russell, and Samardzija, the Cubs could pair Harden with Bedard in games Bedard starts. This would allow Bedard to comfortably throw five innings, with Harden to throw two,  and not putting added strain on either of their arms. Give the ball to Marshall and Marmal and call it a night.

This could be a winning formula, but if it doesn’t work out, the 2012 season is essentially a lost one anyway. If one or both succeed, however, their value can be built up for a deadline trade that benefits the franchise in the long run.

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The Value of David DeJesus

2 Dec David DeJesus

The Cubs finalized an agreement with veteran outfielder David DeJesus to a two-year agreement. Obviously, the casual Cub fans may be inclined to scratch their heads, seeing shades of Kosuke Fukudome in the new signing.

And why not? The two outfielders are very similar batters:

While there’s certainly some bad memories brought up by the thought of Fukudome, the fact remains that he was a useful player. He was not, however, a relatively useful player. That is, of course, relative to the cost of his services.

The biggest positive in the DeJesus deal, is that he is very cost valuable. The deal calls for $10M over two years, with a club option for $6.5M. There hasn’t been any word as to whether or not the option will be voided if he is traded, so let’s assume that clause doesn’t exist.

DeJesus has been consistently a 2+ WAR contributor throughout his career, including 4 WAR seasons in 2005 and 2006. Simply assuming he is going to be a 2 WAR player, especially considering he was such last season for the Oakland Athletics (whom have one of the worst hitting stadiums in the league), is essentially certain, barring injury.

Given the free agent market rate at about $5M per win accumulated, DeJesus would accumulate $20M if he is simply a 4 WAR player over the two years. That’s an extremely valuable asset to a team that has little to no chance of contending. Why? Because that sort of value can be flipped to a contending team in need of an upgrade or if an injury strikes.

Given the new climate of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Cubs will be forced into finding more creative ways to replenish their farm system. The sign-and-trade- the-veteran scheme may be an old one, but given the opening in right field and poor talent elsewhere on the field, it’s hard to call this signing anything but a win for the Cubs.

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Pull The Trigger, Jed

2 Dec Ian Stewart

The Denver Post’s Troy Rench is reporting that the Colorado Rockies have requested a trade for Blake DeWitt in exchange for Rockie third baseman Ian Stewart.

While Stewart is probably going to be non-tendered given the presence of prospect Nolan Arenado, the potential trade would stop Stewart from signing with another team.

The step forward that Darwin Barney took at the plate (combined with the play of utilityman Jeff Baker) has made Blake DeWitt expendable. DeWitt, also a non-tender candidate, was relegated to only 243 plate appearances with Barney becoming the starting second baseman.

Ian Stewart, on the other hand, has demonstrated prodigious power in Triple-A, and was ranked as high as the number five prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America in 2005. Obviously, there is some potential in Stewart.

Entering his age 27 season, he could see a huge spike in production the same way Alex Gordon did last season (age 27 last season). And why not at the cost of Blake DeWitt? Not to disrespect DeWitt, but from a roster management perspective, you are dealing a player from a position of depth to gain a player who plays where you have none.

Here’s an idea. Why not ease Josh Vitters into a major league role by starting him against left-handed pitchers? That would give the left-handed Ian Stewart a break against southpaws, and give Vitters a taste of the majors, all the while putting the duo in favorable match-ups. Stewart doesn’t have a far-spread platoon split, but this would be an effective opportunity to sprinkle Vitters in without handing him the keys to the car.

Update: Renck has since heard that the Rockies are not looking for DeWitt in exchange for Stewart, but more along the lines of Tyler Colvin or a prospect. Either way, the Cubs should make the trade.

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Beyond The Boxscore Elects Ron Santo to Hall of Fame

2 Dec Ron Santo

In anticipation for the announcement of the National Baseball Hall of Fame Committee to Consider Managers, Umpires, Executives and Long-Retired Players (that’s the actual name), sabermetric website Beyond the Boxscore put the same players to vote within their staff, and voted former Cub third baseman and radio color-man Ron Santo unanimously to the ‘Hall of Fame.’

Obviously, the results of the vote have no actual bearing on whether or not Santo actually gets in, rather it offers a good insight on how saber-inclined writers view the deceased former Cub.

See, sabermetrics isn’t that evil.

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What The Cubs Could Get For Garza

30 Nov Chicago Cubs v Washington Nationals

As the Cubs are in what appears to be a total rebuilding mode, Buster Olney has reported that the Cubs would be more than happy to move Matt Garza for the right price. Garza’s stock couldn’t be higher after a career season that coincided with his move to the National League. For a pitcher with two more seasons under team control, at a relatively young age (28), and at a more than reasonable salary, Garza is a rather attractive commodity.

The Cubs could conceivably market Garza as an ace (which is what he is, contrary to his 10-10 record as a Cub), instead the number two starter he came to Chicago as.

Let’s do some comparisons to Garza, for those cynics out there:

Matt Garza:   8.95 K/9       2.86 BB/9      3.13 K/BB       2.95 FIP

Pitcher A:      8.55 K/9       2.58 BB/9       3.31 K/BB       3.13 FIP

Pitcher B:      9.12 K/9        3.57 BB/9       2.56 K/BB       3.17 FIP

Pitcher C:      8.30 K/9       2.98 BB/9       2.78 K/BB       3.24 FIP

Pretty impressive numbers all across the board, sabermetrically speaking of course.

Matt Garza performed at a similar, if not better level than these pitchers, who are former Cy Young Awards winners Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum, along with C.J. Wilson, who is set to make nearly $100M this off-season.

Of course, there is always an argument to be had, and the methodology of handpicking pitchers and statistics is always sure to result in eye-rolls, but my point is that Garza is indeed an ace–and one in his prime.

So what could the Cubs get for Garza?

Instead of doing a wildly irrational prediction, throwing teams and prospects alike into highly unlikely trade scenarios, lets take the safe route, and use the Matt Garza trade last season as a template.

Garza was traded from Tampa last season for prospects Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, and Robinson Chirinos. Also included in the trade was Sam Fuld, Fernando Perez, and Zach Rosscup, but at the time they were collectively thought of as throw in’s.

Again, at the time of the trade, those prospects received letter grade values B+ (Archer), B (Lee), B- (Guyer), and C+ (Chirinos), according to John Sickels. Lets use 2012 letter grades (again from Sickels), and see what we can get.

Texas: Martin Perez B+, Mike Olt B, Will Lamb B-, Ronald Guzman C+

Kansas City: Jake Odorizzi B+, Michael Montgomery B, Christian Colon B-, Clint Robinson C+

Detroit: Nick Castellanos B+, Drew Smyly B, Tyler Collins B-, Daniel Fields C

These of course are simply what a package of Garza might look like. Honestly, I think Theo and company can do better than these groups of players, but that’s not to discount any of the combinations above–all are good prospects in their own right.

Unfortunately, Sickels has only released a handful of 2012 lists, and teams like Atlanta and Arizona are pointless because of their wealth of young pitching.

I’m looking forward to seeing the Cubs’ front office create their own template for this situation, as they’ve shown they can do in their very short history.

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